ASML: The Monopoly That Shrugged Off the Memory Rout
Daily Stock & Crypto Analysis · June 24, 2026 · Deep dive · HIGH CONVICTION (business) — ACCUMULATE DIPS
The one-line thesis: On June 23, a rumor that SK Hynix was slowing HBM4 capacity took South Korea's Kospi down ~10% (a circuit breaker) and crushed Micron -13%. ASML fell roughly 5% — and by midday June 24 it was back trading ~$1,759, within a whisker of its all-time high. That divergence is the entire trade: the market just told you it treats ASML not as a memory-cycle bet but as the diversified toll road on all AI silicon. The only company on Earth that makes EUV lithography (100% share) does not care which memory maker wins — it sells the picks to all of them, plus every logic foundry.
Where ASML trades right now
| Metric | Value (as of Jun 24, 2026, ~10:40 ET) |
|---|
| Price (US ADR) | $1,759.34, −1.1% on the day (prev close $1,778.46); intraday range $1,730–$1,769 |
| 52-week range | $587.80 (Aug 6, 2025) → ~$1,760 (new high zone) — roughly a 3x in ~10 months |
| Market cap | ~$632B — Europe's most valuable listed company |
| Valuation | ~62x trailing EPS (€26.26 ttm); ROE 44.7%; gross margin 51.8% ttm / 53.0% in Q1 |
| Beta | 2.28 — a high-beta name in a hawkish-Fed tape |
| Next catalyst | Q2 2026 earnings July 15, before the open (consensus ~€6.90 EPS, ~€9.0B revenue) |
Quote and fundamentals via the Finnhub market-data feed; ADR is 1:1 with the Amsterdam ordinary share (~€1,500), implying ~1.17 EUR/USD.
What the business actually did (the primary source)
From ASML's Q1 2026 press release (Apr 15) — the numbers I read directly off the income statement and CEO outlook section:
- Q1 net sales €8.77B, gross margin 53.0% (high end of guide), net income €2.76B, EPS €7.15 basic. 67 new lithography systems + 12 used.
- Q2 2026 guide: €8.4–9.0B revenue, 51–52% GM, R&D ~€1.2B, SG&A ~€0.3B.
- FY2026 guidance RAISED to €36–40B (from €34–39B), GM 51–53%. Against 2025's €32.7B that is +10% to +22% growth.
- CEO Christophe Fouquet: "Demand for chips is outpacing supply… customers are accelerating their capacity expansion plans for 2026 and beyond." Crucially, he added the guidance band "accommodates potential outcomes of ongoing discussions around export controls."
- Backlog ~€38.8B entering 2026 (Q4'25 bookings were €13.2B). On the call, CFO Roger Dassen said ASML can ship ~60 high-performance EUV machines in 2026 (+25% YoY), targeting 80 in 2027 — and bull notes since argue it can push past 110 low-NA EUV units without new buildings vs. a ~90-unit prior assumption (Quiver, Jun 17).
Every number here has a consequence: a Low-NA EUV system runs ~€215M and a High-NA ~€450M (The Information Network / 24-7, Jun 2). So each incremental EUV unit beyond plan is a quarter-percent of revenue. The throughput debate is the revenue debate.
The hidden engine: the AI memory war is an ASML war
The market's reflex is to file ASML under "TSMC logic capex." That's now only half the story. HBM — the stacked DRAM that feeds Nvidia GPUs — is projected to triple from ~$17.4B (2024) to ~$60B (2026). To win it, Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron are all forced into tighter DRAM pitches and higher EUV intensity. Micron's Low-NA EUV demand alone is modeled to rise from 1 system in 2023 to ~8 by 2027 as it plays catch-up. ASML wins regardless of which memory maker wins the HBM race. Concrete proof of the order flow: SK Hynix placed a ~$7.9–8B EUV order in March 2026, and ASML booked a ~€4.6B Intel/Apple-related contract in May.
This is why June 23 mattered. The rumor that SK Hynix is throttling HBM4 (paired with a rumor Nvidia may trim Rubin builds) is a timing scare about one customer's capex cadence. It is not a demand-destruction event for the picks-and-shovels supplier with €38.8B of backlog and three memory makers competing. Goldman publicly dismissed the SK Hynix concern. The tell: ASML's shallow drop vs. Micron's -13%.
The real risk worth quantifying: the MATCH Act
Forget the day's memory noise — the asymmetric tail is policy. On June 23, the Netherlands signed into the US-led Pax Silica alliance (alongside the European Commission) even as Dutch trade minister Sjoerdsma flew to Washington specifically to lobby against the MATCH Act — a bill that would let the US block ASML from selling and servicing its less-advanced (DUV) machines in China.
- China was ~33% of 2025 sales but has already fallen to 19% of Q1'26 system sales, with ~20% guided for full-year 2026 (CSIS, Apr 15; StockOpine). The most advanced systems have been barred from China since 2019.
- The DUV machines the bill targets are ~one-fifth of 2026 expected revenue (Financieele Dagblad, via DutchNews). The MATCH Act has cleared committee but not the full Congress.
- The sharper edge is servicing: cutting maintenance on the installed base in China could strand a slug of high-margin Installed Base Management revenue (€2.49B in Q1, and growing).
Mechanism: if the MATCH Act passes with a servicing ban, the hit is concentrated in the ~20% China bucket and the IBM line — call it a high-single-digit-percent revenue headwind to the 2026 plan. Management already widened the guide band to absorb it. That is a known, bounded, slow-moving risk — not the reason ASML moves 5% in a day.
Wall Street targets — and where I disagree
| Firm | Price target (USD) | Date |
|---|
| BofA (Street high) | $2,345 | Jun 22 |
| JPMorgan (Deshpande) | $2,200 | Jun 3 |
| Bernstein (Dai) | $1,971 | Mar 26 |
| RBC (Pajjuri) | $1,700 | Apr 16 |
| Wells Fargo | $1,650 | Jan 29 |
| Morningstar (Correonero) | Fair value ~19% below spot — rated overvalued; sees €60B revenue by 2030 | May 28 |
Targets are stair-stepping higher (BofA/JPM both above $2,200 in June). Morningstar is the honest skeptic: on a DCF the stock is ~19% rich. My read: both can be true. The long-term compounding is close to un-modelable to the downside (a true monopoly on the AI bottleneck), but at 62x trailing earnings, near an all-time high, with beta 2.28 in a hawkish-Fed / "good-news-is-bad-news" regime, entry price is the whole game. I do not chase monopolies at the high tick into a Fed that's debating hikes.
Three-scenario framework into July 15
Bull — 35%: Micron's print tonight confirms HBM strength, killing the SK Hynix slowdown narrative; ASML breaks out > $1,790 and on July 15 posts Q2 net bookings comfortably above ~€5B with the FY €36–40B reiterated or nudged up. Path to $2,000, then the $2,200 JPM target. Trigger: bookings > €5B + guide intact.
Base — 50%: In-line Q2 (~€8.7B, ~53% GM), bookings €4–5B, guide reaffirmed. Stock chops $1,700–1,850, grinding higher with the AI capex tape. Trigger: results land inside guidance, no China escalation.
Bear — 15%: Memory capex fears prove real (Micron soft guide and/or confirmed SK Hynix HBM4 cut), OR the MATCH Act advances through full Congress with a servicing ban. Bookings dip below ~€4B. The 62x multiple compresses fast on a high-beta name → $1,560–1,620, gap-fill toward $1,450. Trigger: guide cut or MATCH Act passage.
The Call
ASML — LONG. HIGH CONVICTION on the business; ACCUMULATE ON DIPS tactically.
Entry zone: $1,660–1,740 (buy pullbacks into the rising trend and the Jun 23 gap support). Momentum add only on a confirmed daily close > $1,790 (new-high breakout).
Target 1: $2,000 (1–3 months, post-July 15 if bookings hold).
Target 2: $2,200 (6–12 months; matches JPM, below BofA's $2,345).
Invalidation: a daily close below $1,620; OR a July 15 FY guide cut / Q2 net bookings below ~€4B; OR the MATCH Act passing full Congress with a China DUV servicing ban.
Timeframe: 1–3 months (key catalyst: July 15 earnings).
Conviction: HIGH CONVICTION — four independent signals agree: (1) relative strength vs. the memory rout, (2) accelerating order intake ($8B SK Hynix, €4.6B Intel/Apple), (3) raised FY guidance + €38.8B backlog, (4) rising analyst targets (JPM $2,200, BofA $2,345).
Honest caveat (my opinion): chasing at the all-time high (> $1,785) into July 15 is the SPECULATIVE momentum version of this trade. At 62x earnings with a hawkish Warsh Fed and beta 2.28, I want the dip. The business deserves a premium; my entry discipline does not.
Sources
Not investment advice. The author publishes analysis under @dailyanalysts. Prices and figures cited as of June 24, 2026.