Every "year 2 of a presidential term" since 1986, overlaid — plus the closest historical analog and a reasoned month-by-month projection for the rest of 2026.
Eleven mid-election years overlaid on a single Jan–Dec axis. The dispersion is enormous — from the dot-com crash of 2002 (−34%) to the dot-com peak of 1998 (+85%). Click any year in the legend to toggle it.
By raw price pattern, 2018 matches best — same Q1 drawdown, same March bottom. But by fundamental character, the closest analog is 1998: a secular tech super-cycle driving a momentum melt-up. These point in different directions, so both matter.
The defining engine is the same: a secular tech super-cycle — the internet then, the AI capex boom now — producing a powerful momentum rally. 1998 was +30% by June; 2026 is +20%. Both shrugged off a mid-year external shock as the tech narrative overwhelmed everything else. This is what actually drives the Nasdaq-100.
Same president, same policy mix (tariffs + tax cuts), same Q1 drawdown shape (−8.8% vs −8.6%), and — critically — the same hawkish Fed turning the screws. 2018 is the closest match in policy regime and early-year price shape. Its Q4 crash is the cautionary tale.
In 1998, the Greenspan Fed cut rates 3× in the fall (the LTCM rescue) — rocket fuel for the year-end melt-up. In 2026, the Fed is doing the opposite: rate-hike odds are rising and Chair Warsh has turned hawkish — the exact 2018 dynamic. So 2026 has 1998's fundamental lift but 2018's monetary ceiling.
Solid line is what's already happened (Jan–Jun). The dashed line is my reasoned base-case path for July–December, overlaid against both analogs. The shaded region is the projection zone.
Cumulative monthly performance, indexed to 100 at January, for every mid-election year. The 2026 row blends actuals (Jan–Jun) with projections (Jul–Dec, italic). Full-year return in the final column.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | FY |
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This page combines historical seasonality data, an analog analysis, and a forward projection. The projection is a reasoned scenario built on historical analogs and current macro conditions — not a forecast, recommendation, or investment advice. Historical figures are approximate reconstructions for illustrating seasonal patterns. Markets are path-dependent; a single surprise (Fed, earnings, geopolitics) can break any analog. Nothing here is from a licensed financial advisor. Do your own research.